Nearly 586,000 Affected as Tropical Depression Pilandok Intensifies Philippine Monsoon
Commuters cross a flooded street in Manila during monsoon rains on 17 August. Nearly 586,000 people have been affected by the current flooding, which PAGASA expects to continue until Tuesday. Ted ALJIBE / AFP via Getty Images

The Philippines is entering a fourth day of severe flooding, with the weather bureau warning there will be no relief at the start of the week.

Metro Manila and most of the country face continued heavy rain and flooding as Tropical Depression Pilandok intensifies the southwest monsoon, known locally as the habagat, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.

The depression was bearing down on Northern Luzon on Sunday with winds of 45 kilometres per hour and gusts up to 55 kph. PAGASA said it is not expected to make landfall but will enhance the monsoon, unleashing torrential rain that could last until Tuesday.

That distinction matters for how the damage accumulates. A storm that does not make landfall still drives sustained rainfall across a wide area, and the flooding here is monsoon-driven rather than the result of a direct hit.

The scale so far

The Philippine Red Cross has stepped up its response, with nearly 586,000 people affected by the habagat and associated cyclones.

A dike at Sto. Tomas has been breached and forced evacuation ordered. Authorities have also issued a lahar warning — the volcanic mudflows that heavy rain can mobilise from ash deposits on volcanic slopes, and a recurring hazard in central Luzon.

Agricultural losses are already substantial. Pampanga has reported P1.25 billion in farm damage from the floods.

Parts of Metro Manila and Rizal face water service interruptions this week.

The economic overlay

The flooding arrives at a difficult moment for the Philippine economy, and it will show up in the data.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has projected August inflation between 5.5% and 6.5%, citing higher rice, vegetable, fruit and fish prices driven partly by unfavourable weather. A Manila Times poll of analysts produced a median forecast of 6.0%, which would mark a fourth consecutive month of easing from July's 6.2% — though still well above the 2% to 4% target and far above the 1.5% recorded in August last year.

The Philippine Statistics Authority publishes August data on Friday 4 September. Agricultural damage in Pampanga and elsewhere will feed into September rather than August prices.

The peso, meanwhile, closed at a record low of 62.265 per dollar on Friday, with the Philippine News Agency attributing the negative close in both the currency and the stock index to a jump in global oil prices late in the week.

Preparedness in focus

The government released P1 billion to strengthen Project NOAH, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards, a hazard mapping and early warning programme.

The Philippine Daily Inquirer described the timing as opportune given current conditions — an assessment that also implies the funding arrives after the flooding rather than before it.

What to watch

PAGASA's forecast runs to Tuesday, and whether the monsoon enhancement eases on schedule determines how much further the affected figure rises.

The second is agricultural damage. The P1.25 billion reported in Pampanga is one province, and national assessments typically follow by several days.

The third is the September inflation print. Food price effects from flooding are among the most reliable pass-through mechanisms in Philippine inflation data, and they will not appear until October.